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Mastercard third quarter 2026 earnings explained: revenue lines, EPS and valuation multiples

Mastercard earned $4,628 million on $9,807 million of net revenue in the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Here is how its two revenue lines did, what its EPS looks like and what its valuation multiples show.

Mastercard reported its third quarter 2026 results on October 29, 2026. Net revenue for the three months ended September 30 rose 5.7% from the quarter before and net income rose 5.5% (Dalsna Finance calculation). Against the same quarter of 2025, net revenue grew 14% and diluted earnings per share grew 22%, as reported by the company. This article walks through what Mastercard does, how its two revenue lines performed and what the numbers say about its valuation. Every figure is sourced and dated, and every number worked out by us is labelled as a Dalsna Finance calculation. [1][2]

Mastercard in brief

Mastercard Incorporated is based in Purchase, New York. Its Class A shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MA. It runs a card payment network. Its customers, such as banks, issue the cards that carry its brands. Mastercard earns revenue from the payment activity on those cards and from the services it sells alongside its network. The company says it serves people in more than 220 countries and territories. At September 30, 2026 its customers had issued 3.8 billion Mastercard and Maestro branded cards. [1][3]

In the release chief executive Michael Miebach said "Another strong quarter for Mastercard, delivering net revenue growth of 14%." He also pointed to its work on what he called Agentic Commerce and to what he called its new Global Money Platform through BVNK. Mastercard bought BVNK, a provider of stablecoin infrastructure, on August 3, 2026. The quarterly report says it acquired a 100% equity interest for total cash consideration of $1.4 billion, and that the sellers could earn up to $300 million more if certain performance targets are met. [1][3]

Two revenue lines

Mastercard splits its net revenue into two lines. Payment network revenue comes from the payment activity on cards that carry Mastercard's brands. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, the quarterly report puts its rise primarily down to more dollar volume at home and across borders and more switched transactions, as well as pricing. A switched transaction is one that Mastercard's own systems process. The report also says payment network net revenue included $6,369 million of rebates and incentives provided to customers in the third quarter. Value added services and solutions is the second line, covering the services Mastercard sells alongside its network. Against the same quarter of 2025, the company credited that line's growth primarily to the same key drivers, strong demand for several of its services and pricing. [3][1]

Payment network revenue rose to $5,749 million in the third quarter from $5,451 million in the second, and value added services and solutions rose to $4,058 million from $3,826 million. Against the third quarter of 2025, Mastercard reported growth of 11% for payment network and 19% for value added services and solutions. Value added services and solutions made up 41.4% of net revenue in the third quarter, against 41.2% in the second (Dalsna Finance calculation: $4,058 million divided by $9,807 million, and $3,826 million divided by $9,277 million). [1][3][4]

Mastercard net revenue by line, three months ended June 30 and September 30, 2026 (US dollars in millions)
Revenue lineQ2 2026Q3 2026ChangeChange (%)
Payment network5,4515,749Up 298Up 5.5%
Value added services and solutions3,8264,058Up 232Up 6.1%
Total net revenue9,2779,807Up 530Up 5.7%

Net revenue by line as reported by Mastercard in the revenue notes of its quarterly reports for the periods ended June 30 and September 30, 2026. The two change columns are a Dalsna Finance calculation: Change is Q3 2026 minus Q2 2026, and Change (%) is that change divided by the Q2 2026 figure, times 100, rounded to one decimal at the end. [3][4]

Volumes and transactions

Mastercard reports three key drivers for its network. Gross dollar volume, or GDV, is the total value of purchases and cash withdrawals made with Mastercard branded cards. It reached $2,952 billion in the third quarter against $2,881 billion in the second, and Mastercard put third quarter growth from a year earlier at 7% on a local currency basis. Local currency means the growth rate leaves out swings in exchange rates. Cross border volume, activity where the merchant and the card issuer are in different countries, grew 11% from a year earlier on a local currency basis. Switched transactions grew 9%. [1][2][3]

Mastercard gives cross border volume and switched transactions only as growth rates, not as totals, so the table below shows growth from a year earlier for both quarters. Each rate compares a quarter with the same quarter of 2025, so the two columns are not a quarter over quarter change. [1][2]

Mastercard key network drivers, three months ended June 30 and September 30, 2026
DriverQ2 2026Q3 2026
Gross dollar volume (US dollars in billions)2,8812,952
Gross dollar volume, growth from a year earlier (local currency)Up 8%Up 7%
Cross border volume, growth from a year earlier (local currency)Up 12%Up 11%
Switched transactions, growth from a year earlierUp 9%Up 9%

As reported by Mastercard in its second and third quarter 2026 earnings releases. Gross dollar volume is the worldwide total for all Mastercard credit, charge and debit programs in the operating performance tables. Mastercard says this data is provided by its customers and is subject to revision. [1][2]

The numbers, quarter over quarter

Net revenue was $9,807 million in the third quarter, against $9,277 million in the second. Total operating expenses rose to $3,945 million from $3,690 million, and operating income, net revenue minus operating expenses, rose to $5,862 million from $5,587 million. Net income under GAAP, the standard US accounting rules, rose to $4,628 million from $4,388 million. [1][2]

Profit margin is net income as a share of net revenue: 47.2% in the third quarter against 47.3% in the second (Dalsna Finance calculation: $4,628 million divided by $9,807 million, and $4,388 million divided by $9,277 million). The operating margin, operating income divided by net revenue, was 59.8% against 60.2%, as reported. The effective tax rate, the share of pre tax income paid in tax, was 19.4% against 20.0%. Mastercard said its third quarter tax rate was lower than a year earlier due to higher net discrete tax benefits and other tax impacts in 2026. It did not put a dollar figure on those benefits. [1][2]

Mastercard also reports adjusted results. Adjusted means the company has taken out items it does not see as part of its ongoing business. For the third quarter it removed $74 million of pre tax litigation charges, primarily due to settlements with merchants who opted out of the U.S. merchant class litigation, which added $49 million to adjusted net income in its reconciliation. It also removed the impact of a $5 million net pre tax loss on its equity investments, an adjustment that lowered adjusted net income by $24 million once the related tax impacts are included, as shown in its reconciliation. Adjusted net income was $4,653 million, against $4,453 million in the second quarter. Adjusted results are a non GAAP measure. [1][2]

Against the third quarter of 2025, net revenue rose from $8,602 million and net income from $3,927 million. Mastercard reported growth of 14% in net revenue and 18% in net income, and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.31 against $4.38, up 21%. [1]

Calculation 1: Quarter over quarter changes and margins
Quarter over quarter, three months ended June 30 and September 30, 2026 (US dollars in millions unless stated)
MeasureQ2 2026Q3 2026ChangeChange (%)
Net revenue9,2779,807Up 530Up 5.7%
Total operating expenses3,6903,945Up 255Up 6.9%
Operating income5,5875,862Up 275Up 4.9%
Total other income (expense)Loss of 101Loss of 121Down 20Not meaningful
Net income (GAAP)4,3884,628Up 240Up 5.5%
Adjusted net income (non GAAP)4,4534,653Up 200Up 4.5%
Profit margin (net income divided by net revenue)47.3%47.2%Down 0.1 pointsNot meaningful
Adjusted net margin (adjusted net income divided by net revenue)48.0%47.4%Down 0.6 pointsNot meaningful
Operating margin (operating income divided by net revenue)60.2%59.8%Down 0.5 pointsNot meaningful
Effective tax rate20.0%19.4%Down 0.6 pointsNot meaningful
Weighted average diluted shares (millions)883876Down 7Down 0.8%

As reported by Mastercard, except the profit and adjusted net margins and the change columns, which are a Dalsna Finance calculation. Change is Q3 minus Q2 in the row's unit, in percentage points for margins and rates. Change (%) is Change divided by Q2, times 100. Both use the figures as filed, rounded only at the end, so a margin change can differ from the rounded margins by 0.1 point. Change (%) is not meaningful for other income because it was a loss in both quarters. It is also not meaningful for margins and rates, which are already percentages. [1][2]

Earnings per share

Earnings per share, or EPS, is profit divided by the number of shares. The diluted figure also counts shares that could be created from stock awards. Mastercard reported diluted EPS of $5.28 for the third quarter and $4.97 for the second. Adjusted EPS divides adjusted net income by the same diluted share count, and Mastercard reported adjusted diluted EPS of $5.31 and $5.04. Dividing each net income figure by the reported diluted share count gives the same figures. [1][2]

The share count fell because Mastercard keeps buying back its own stock. In the third quarter it repurchased 5.3 million shares at a cost of $3.0 billion and paid $763 million in dividends. From October 1 through October 26 it bought another 1.1 million shares for $0.6 billion, which left $4.9 billion under its approved repurchase programs. [1]

Calculation 2: Shares outstanding, October 26, 2026
  • 864,657,109 Class A shares outstanding as of October 26, 2026, as given on the cover of the quarterly report
  • Plus 6,519,005 Class B shares outstanding on the same date
  • Gives 871,176,114 shares of both classes

About 871.2 million shares

Dalsna Finance calculation from the cover of Mastercard's quarterly report for the period ended September 30, 2026. Every per share figure, multiple and share price in this article uses this one count, unrounded. [3]

Calculation 3: GAAP and adjusted EPS
EPS arithmetic, three months ended June 30 and September 30, 2026
QuarterNet income (US dollars in millions)Adjusted net income (US dollars in millions)Weighted average diluted shares (millions)Net income divided by diluted sharesDiluted EPS as reportedAdjusted net income divided by diluted sharesAdjusted diluted EPS as reported
Q2 20264,3884,453883$4.97$4.97$5.04$5.04
Q3 20264,6284,653876$5.28$5.28$5.31$5.31

Net income, adjusted net income, shares and reported EPS as reported by Mastercard. The two division columns are a Dalsna Finance calculation on the share counts as reported in millions, rounded to the cent. [1][2]

Mastercard diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS, Q2 and Q3 2026 (US dollars per share)
Mastercard diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS, Q2 and Q3 2026 (US dollars per share)
Diluted EPS (GAAP, as reported)Adjusted diluted EPS (as reported)
Q2 2026$4.97$5.04
Q3 2026$5.28$5.31

As reported by Mastercard. The arithmetic behind each figure, a Dalsna Finance calculation, is in the table above. [1][2]

What the market values Mastercard at

Market capitalization, or market cap, is what the stock market values the whole company at: the share price times the number of shares. Mastercard's Class A shares closed at $638.01 on Friday, October 30, 2026, as reported by StockAnalysis. The cover of its third quarter report to the SEC lists 864,657,109 Class A shares and 6,519,005 Class B shares outstanding as of October 26, 2026. The cover lists only the Class A stock as traded on the New York Stock Exchange, so this article values both classes at the Class A price. That gives a market cap of about $555.8 billion (Dalsna Finance calculation). Every multiple and share price below uses this one share count. [5][3]

Calculation 4: Market cap at the October 30, 2026 close
  • Closing price of $638.01 on October 30, 2026, as reported by StockAnalysis
  • Times 871,176,114 shares of both classes

Market cap of about $555.8 billion

Dalsna Finance calculation, rounded at the end. The multiples below divide the unrounded market cap. [5][3]

Six valuation multiples

The price to earnings ratio, or P/E, is market cap divided by a year of earnings. It shows how many dollars the market is paying for each dollar of yearly profit. Annualised means one quarter multiplied by four. On that basis Mastercard has a P/E of 30.0 (Dalsna Finance calculation: $555.8 billion divided by $4,628 million times 4, which is $18,512 million). On adjusted net income of $4,653 million times 4, or $18,612 million, the adjusted P/E is 29.9. [1][5][3]

A forward P/E uses an estimate of future earnings. 24/7 Wall St. reported on October 25, 2026, before the results, that the consensus estimate for full year 2026 normalized EPS was $19.9303. Normalized means analysts have stripped out items they treat as unusual, and the report compared it with $17.01 a year earlier, which matches Mastercard's adjusted EPS for 2025, so we treat it as an adjusted estimate. Multiplying it by the same 871.2 million shares gives estimated earnings of about $17,363 million and an adjusted forward P/E of 32.0 (Dalsna Finance calculation on an estimate, the consensus as reported by 24/7 Wall St.). Two of the four quarters in that year had been reported when the estimate was published, and a third had ended but not yet been reported. We found no published GAAP estimate, so there is no GAAP forward P/E. [6][5][3]

A trailing P/E, sometimes called a historical P/E, uses the last four reported quarters. Net income over the four quarters to September 30, 2026 was $16,958 million and adjusted net income $17,487 million, which gives a trailing P/E of 32.8 and an adjusted trailing P/E of 31.8 (Dalsna Finance calculation). Both are higher than the annualised figures because earnings in the latest quarter were higher than in the three before it. [1][2][7][5][3]

Calculation 5: Annualised P/E
  • Third quarter 2026 net income of $4,628 million times 4 is $18,512 million
  • Market cap of $555.8 billion divided by $18,512 million

Annualised P/E of 30.0

Dalsna Finance calculation, using the unrounded market cap and rounded to one decimal. [1][5][3]

Calculation 6: Adjusted annualised P/E
  • Third quarter 2026 adjusted net income of $4,653 million times 4 is $18,612 million
  • Market cap of $555.8 billion divided by $18,612 million

Adjusted annualised P/E of 29.9

Dalsna Finance calculation, using the unrounded market cap and rounded to one decimal. Adjusted net income is a non GAAP measure. [1][5][3]

Calculation 7: Adjusted forward P/E on the 2026 consensus
  • Consensus estimate for full year 2026 normalized EPS of $19.9303, as reported by 24/7 Wall St. on October 25, 2026
  • Times 871.2 million shares is about $17,363 million of estimated earnings
  • Market cap of $555.8 billion divided by $17,363 million

Adjusted forward P/E of 32.0

Dalsna Finance calculation on an estimate (analyst consensus, as reported by 24/7 Wall St.), using unrounded figures and rounded to one decimal. The estimate predates the October 29, 2026 results. [6][5][3]

Calculation 8: Trailing P/E
  • Net income of $4,060 million, $3,882 million, $4,388 million and $4,628 million for the four quarters to September 30, 2026 adds up to $16,958 million
  • Market cap of $555.8 billion divided by $16,958 million

Trailing P/E of 32.8

Dalsna Finance calculation, using the unrounded market cap and rounded to one decimal. The first quarter 2026 figure is worked out, as shown in the last four quarters section. [1][2][7][5][3]

Calculation 9: Adjusted trailing P/E
  • Adjusted net income of $4,278 million, $4,103 million, $4,453 million and $4,653 million for the four quarters to September 30, 2026 adds up to $17,487 million
  • Market cap of $555.8 billion divided by $17,487 million

Adjusted trailing P/E of 31.8

Dalsna Finance calculation, using the unrounded market cap and rounded to one decimal. The first quarter 2026 figure is worked out, as shown in the last four quarters section. [1][2][7][5][3]

Six valuation multiples for Mastercard at the October 30, 2026 close
MeasureEarnings usedFormulaResult
Annualised P/EUses Calculation 5: Annualised P/E$18,512 million (Q3 2026 net income of $4,628 million times 4)$555.8 billion divided by $18,512 million30.0
Adjusted annualised P/EUses Calculation 6: Adjusted annualised P/E$18,612 million (Q3 2026 adjusted net income of $4,653 million times 4)$555.8 billion divided by $18,612 million29.9
Forward P/E (GAAP)No published GAAP estimate foundNot calculatedNot calculated
Adjusted forward P/E (estimate: consensus normalized EPS for 2026, reported October 25, 2026)Uses Calculation 7: Adjusted forward P/E on the 2026 consensus$17,363 million ($19.9303 times 871.2 million shares)$555.8 billion divided by $17,363 million32.0
Trailing P/E (four quarters to September 30, 2026)Uses Calculation 8: Trailing P/E$16,958 million of net income$555.8 billion divided by $16,958 million32.8
Adjusted trailing P/E (four quarters to September 30, 2026)Uses Calculation 9: Adjusted trailing P/E$17,487 million of adjusted net income$555.8 billion divided by $17,487 million31.8

Dalsna Finance calculation. Market cap is $638.01 times 871,176,114 shares of both classes, about $555.8 billion. Multiples are rounded to one decimal. [5][3][1][6]

The last four quarters

The fourth quarter 2025 figures come from Mastercard's release for that quarter and the second and third quarter 2026 figures from their own releases. For the first quarter of 2026 we worked the figures out from the second quarter release: net income of $8,270 million for the six months to June 30, 2026 minus $4,388 million for the second quarter gives $3,882 million, and adjusted net income of $8,556 million minus $4,453 million gives $4,103 million (Dalsna Finance calculation). Adjusted net income ran above net income in every quarter. The gap was widest in the first quarter of 2026, which carried a $202 million pre tax restructuring charge that Mastercard said was primarily meant to free up money it can reinvest in its long term growth. [7][2][1]

Calculation 10: Last four quarters
Mastercard net income and adjusted net income by quarter, last four quarters (US dollars in millions)
QuarterNet income (GAAP)Adjusted net income (non GAAP)
Q4 20254,0604,278
Q1 2026 (worked out)3,8824,103
Q2 20264,3884,453
Q3 20264,6284,653
Total, four quarters16,95817,487

As reported by Mastercard, except the Q1 2026 row (six months to June 30, 2026 minus Q2 2026) and the totals, which are a Dalsna Finance calculation. [7][2][1]

Mastercard net income and adjusted net income by quarter, Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 (US dollars in millions)
Mastercard net income and adjusted net income by quarter, Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 (US dollars in millions)
Net income (GAAP)Adjusted net income (non GAAP)
Q4 20254,0604,278
Q1 20263,8824,103
Q2 20264,3884,453
Q3 20264,6284,653

As reported by Mastercard, except Q1 2026, which is worked out from the six month and second quarter figures (Dalsna Finance calculation). The four quarter totals are not charted. [7][2][1]

Three base cases: the third quarter held flat for a year

Suppose net revenue stayed at the third quarter's level for a full year, with no growth and no decline: $9,807 million times 4, or $39,228 million. The first base case keeps the 47.2% profit margin, which gives earnings of $18,512 million, or $21.25 per share on the cover share count. The second keeps the 47.4% adjusted net margin, which gives $18,612 million, or $21.36 per share. Each of these is simply the latest quarter annualised, so at its own annualised P/E it returns the October 30, 2026 close of $638.01 by construction. The other cells only show how the price moves when the same earnings are given a different multiple. [1][5][3]

Mastercard said its tax rate was lower than a year earlier due to higher net discrete tax benefits and other tax impacts, but it did not say how much they were worth, so we do not estimate them. To show the result without tax and other items, the third case works from operating income, which leaves out interest, investment results, other income and taxes altogether. Mastercard put a figure on one item inside third quarter operating expenses, the $74 million of litigation charges, so this case uses its adjusted operating margin of 60.5%, which excludes them: net revenue of $9,807 million minus adjusted operating expenses of $3,872 million is $5,935 million for the quarter (Dalsna Finance calculation), or $23,740 million a year and $27.25 per share. Operating income is counted before tax, so this is not net income, and nothing else is taken out. [1][3]

Calculation 11: Net revenue held flat for a year
  • Third quarter 2026 net revenue of $9,807 million
  • Times 4, with no growth and no decline

$39,228 million of net revenue a year

Dalsna Finance calculation. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice. [1]

Calculation 12: Base case earnings, net margin case
  • $39,228 million of net revenue a year
  • At the third quarter's profit margin of 47.2% ($4,628 million divided by $9,807 million, unrounded)
  • Gives $18,512 million of earnings a year
  • Divided by 871.2 million shares

$18,512 million a year, or $21.25 per share

Dalsna Finance calculation, using unrounded figures and rounded at the end. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice. [1][3]

Calculation 13: Base case earnings, adjusted net margin case
  • $39,228 million of net revenue a year
  • At the third quarter's adjusted net margin of 47.4% ($4,653 million divided by $9,807 million, unrounded)
  • Gives $18,612 million of adjusted earnings a year
  • Divided by 871.2 million shares

$18,612 million a year, or $21.36 per share

Dalsna Finance calculation, using unrounded figures and rounded at the end. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice. [1][3]

Calculation 14: Base case earnings, adjusted operating margin case
  • $39,228 million of net revenue a year
  • At the third quarter's adjusted operating margin of 60.5% ($9,807 million minus $3,872 million of adjusted operating expenses, which is $5,935 million, divided by $9,807 million, unrounded)
  • Gives $23,740 million of operating earnings a year, counted before tax, so not net income
  • Divided by 871.2 million shares

$23,740 million a year, or $27.25 per share

Dalsna Finance calculation, using unrounded figures and rounded at the end. Adjusted operating expenses exclude the $74 million of litigation charges. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice. [1][3]

Last close: $655.92, at the close on November 5, 2026, from the latest quote on our Mastercard page (MA).

Base cases: implied share price at each P/E. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice.
Base caseYear of earnings (US dollars in millions)Per shareAt annualised P/E of 30.0At adjusted annualised P/E of 29.9At adjusted forward P/E of 32.0At trailing P/E of 32.8At adjusted trailing P/E of 31.8
Net margin case (net income)Uses Calculation 12: Base case earnings, net margin case, Calculation 5: Annualised P/E, Calculation 6: Adjusted annualised P/E, Calculation 7: Adjusted forward P/E on the 2026 consensus, Calculation 8: Trailing P/E and Calculation 9: Adjusted trailing P/E18,512$21.25$638.01 (2.7% lower)$634.58 (3.3% lower)$680.24 (3.7% higher)$696.48 (6.2% higher)$675.41 (3.0% higher)
Adjusted net margin case (adjusted net income)Uses Calculation 13: Base case earnings, adjusted net margin case, Calculation 5: Annualised P/E, Calculation 6: Adjusted annualised P/E, Calculation 7: Adjusted forward P/E on the 2026 consensus, Calculation 8: Trailing P/E and Calculation 9: Adjusted trailing P/E18,612$21.36$641.46 (2.2% lower)$638.01 (2.7% lower)$683.91 (4.3% higher)$700.24 (6.8% higher)$679.06 (3.5% higher)
Adjusted operating margin case (before interest, investment results, other income and taxes)Uses Calculation 14: Base case earnings, adjusted operating margin case, Calculation 5: Annualised P/E, Calculation 6: Adjusted annualised P/E, Calculation 7: Adjusted forward P/E on the 2026 consensus, Calculation 8: Trailing P/E and Calculation 9: Adjusted trailing P/E23,740$27.25$818.19 (24.7% higher)$813.80 (24.1% higher)$872.35 (33.0% higher)$893.17 (36.2% higher)$866.15 (32.1% higher)

Dalsna Finance calculation. Implied price is the P/E times a year of earnings divided by 871,176,114 shares, using unrounded figures and rounded to the cent. Net revenue is $9,807 million times 4. Profit margin 47.2%, adjusted net margin 47.4% and adjusted operating margin 60.5%, each the Q3 2026 figure divided by $9,807 million. There is no GAAP forward P/E, so it has no column. [1][3][5][6]

Each percentage compares that hypothetical price with the price above, worked out from the rounded prices when this page was built. It is arithmetic, not a forecast.

Scenario chart: each implied share price in the table above against the reference price. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice.

Net margin case (net income)

  • Last close $655.92 at the close on November 5, 2026
  • At annualised P/E of 30.0 $638.01 2.7% lower
  • At adjusted annualised P/E of 29.9 $634.58 3.3% lower
  • At adjusted forward P/E of 32.0 $680.24 3.7% higher
  • At trailing P/E of 32.8 $696.48 6.2% higher
  • At adjusted trailing P/E of 31.8 $675.41 3.0% higher

Adjusted net margin case (adjusted net income)

  • Last close $655.92 at the close on November 5, 2026
  • At annualised P/E of 30.0 $641.46 2.2% lower
  • At adjusted annualised P/E of 29.9 $638.01 2.7% lower
  • At adjusted forward P/E of 32.0 $683.91 4.3% higher
  • At trailing P/E of 32.8 $700.24 6.8% higher
  • At adjusted trailing P/E of 31.8 $679.06 3.5% higher

Adjusted operating margin case (before interest, investment results, other income and taxes)

  • Last close $655.92 at the close on November 5, 2026
  • At annualised P/E of 30.0 $818.19 24.7% higher
  • At adjusted annualised P/E of 29.9 $813.80 24.1% higher
  • At adjusted forward P/E of 32.0 $872.35 33.0% higher
  • At trailing P/E of 32.8 $893.17 36.2% higher
  • At adjusted trailing P/E of 31.8 $866.15 32.1% higher

These are illustrations from the base case earnings held flat and the reference price shown, not forecasts or advice. Green bars sit above the reference price, red bars below and grey bars within 0.5% of it. The dashed line marks the reference price.

Base cases: implied share price at each P/E. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice. (US dollars per share)
  • Adjusted operating margin case: Before interest, investment results, other income and taxes. Excludes litigation charges. Not net income.
Base cases: implied share price at each P/E. Hypothetical arithmetic for illustration only. These are not forecasts, price targets or investment advice. (US dollars per share)
Net margin caseAdjusted net margin caseAdjusted operating margin case
Annual P/E 30.0$638.01$641.46$818.19
Adj annual 29.9$634.58$638.01$813.80
Adj fwd 32.0$680.24$683.91$872.35
Trail P/E 32.8$696.48$700.24$893.17
Adj trail 31.8$675.41$679.06$866.15

Dalsna Finance calculation, the same fifteen prices as the table above, at the annualised (Annual), adjusted (Adj), forward (Fwd) and trailing (Trail) P/E. There is no GAAP forward P/E, so it has no bars. [1][3][5][6]

What to watch

Mastercard's release gives no outlook for the fourth quarter. The next report will show whether value added services and solutions keep growing faster than the payment network, and how the BVNK purchase shows up in revenue and expenses. Long term debt stood at $22,189 million at September 30, 2026, against $18,251 million at the end of 2025. In June 2026 Mastercard issued $5.000 billion principal amount of notes, and the quarterly report puts the net proceeds at $4.978 billion. [1][3]

Litigation is the other thing to follow. According to the quarterly report, another proposed class action was filed in September 2026 for U.S. merchants outside the earlier damages class. Those merchants want damages tied to taking Mastercard credit cards since January 2019. Then in October 2026 Mastercard and Visa received two proposed group claims in the U.K., brought for U.K. merchants that have taken card payments since October 2020. The first asks Mastercard for about 1.5 billion pounds in damages, or about $2.0 billion as of September 30, 2026, over consumer domestic and cross border transactions. The second asks for about 0.4 billion pounds, or about $0.5 billion as of September 30, 2026, over consumer online cross border transactions. These are claims, not rulings. [3]

How these figures were made: inputs come from Mastercard's earnings releases for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the second and third quarters of 2026 and its quarterly reports for the second and third quarters of 2026 on SEC EDGAR, plus the dated closing price and the dated estimate report named above. Calculations use unrounded inputs and are rounded only at the end, with multiples to one decimal and per share figures and prices to the cent. [1][3][2][4][7][5][6]

Companies in this article: Mastercard (MA)

Sources

  1. Mastercard Incorporated Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) Mastercard Incorporated (SEC filing) · 2026-10-29
  2. Mastercard Incorporated Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) Mastercard Incorporated (SEC filing) · 2026-07-30
  3. Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2026 Mastercard Incorporated (SEC filing) · 2026-10-29
  4. Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026 Mastercard Incorporated (SEC filing) · 2026-07-30
  5. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Price History StockAnalysis · 2026-10-30
  6. Mastercard Near All-Time Highs: 3 Crucial Metrics That Will Make or Break Q3 Earnings on Oct. 29 24/7 Wall St. · 2026-10-25
  7. Mastercard Incorporated Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) Mastercard Incorporated (SEC filing) · 2026-01-29

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